Market Regimes

Last updated: 2026-01-17 20:31 UTC Active patterns: 32 Total samples: 0 Confidence threshold: 60%

How to Use This Skill

1. Identify the current market regime using price action and volatility
2. Look up the recommended strategy for that regime below
3. Adjust your trading approach accordingly
4. Monitor for regime changes

Regime Strategies

Mixed Choppy

Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):

Reduce or eliminate trading. In mixed markets (BNB +0.93%, SOL +1.65%, BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%, DOGE -1.19%), zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed all active traders (all negative PnL). Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0 trades = $0, 2 trades = -$0.29, 160 trades = -$17.96, 201 trades = -$360.24.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (93% confidence, seen 1x):

Zero trading or extremely low frequency (<25 trades/24h). Market showed BNB +2.03%, ETH +1.02%, DOGE +1.07%, BTC +0.24% but all active traders lost money. Only non-traders preserved capital. If trading, long-only on strongest performers (BNB).

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (92% confidence, seen 1x):

Zero trading or very low frequency (<30 trades/24h) with long-only bias. Market up +0.63% to +2.15% across all assets - passive strategies outperformed all active traders. Only skill_only_oss with 89 trades and selective longs achieved positive PnL.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):

Avoid shorting entirely. All short-biased strategies lost money despite 'bearish' technical signals. Technical indicators gave false bearish readings in a bullish regime.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (90% confidence, seen 1x):

Avoid shorting entirely. skill_aware_oss lost $-167.78 with 171 trades including BTCUSDT shorts despite 'bearish alignment' signals. Market direction trumps technical signals.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):

Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance: 0-10 trades = $0 to -$30 loss; 76-103 trades = -$44 to -$180 loss. Optimal is <20 trades or pure capital preservation.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-16

Mixed Choppy

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):

Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, SMA crossovers) generate false signals in mixed markets. Both bullish and bearish aligned trades lost money.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (88% confidence, seen 1x):

Asset selection critical: BNB (+2.03%) significantly outperformed SOL (-0.09%). Agents focusing on SOL longs (llama4_scout) lost heavily despite 'uptrend' reasoning.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):

Reduce trade frequency dramatically or avoid trading entirely. Zero-trade strategies ($0 PnL) outperformed active trading strategies (avg -$66 PnL). Only agentic_gptoss profited by actively managing shorts and closing positions to lock gains.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-16

Mixed Choppy

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):

If trading, prefer assets showing clear directional movement (SOL +1.65%, BNB +0.93%) over flat assets (BTC -0.08%, ETH -0.03%). Avoid shorting in mixed regimes even with bearish technical signals.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):

Asset selection: BNB (+2.15%) significantly outperformed BTC (+0.63%). Long positions in higher-beta assets would have captured more upside.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bull

Recommended approach (85% confidence, seen 1x):

Technical analysis signals (multi-timeframe alignment, MACD, RSI) are unreliable for direction. Both bullish and bearish technical signals led to losses.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-17

Moderate Bearish

Recommended approach (82% confidence, seen 1x):

Short positions with active profit-taking outperform long positions. agentic_gptoss (+$34.30) succeeded by opening shorts and closing when 'position is already in profit' rather than holding.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-16

Moderate Bearish

Recommended approach (80% confidence, seen 1x):

Asset selection matters: DOGE (-3%) showed highest volatility/decline, making it best short target. BNB (-0.61%) showed relative strength, making it worst short target.

• Total observations: 0
• First identified: 2026-01-16

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